Why Dollar Cost Averaging is Not Working On China's Stocks

Why Dollar Cost Averaging is Not Working On China’s Stocks?

Why Dollar Cost Averaging is Not Working On China's Stocks
Why Dollar Cost Averaging is Not Working On China’s Stocks… yet.

The last 2 weeks was a bumpy one for China’s stocks. Technology companies ranging from Alibaba, Tencent, Didi and all the way to the educational sector pretty much spooked investors all over the world. There was massive selling and it seemed to have paused after JD reported good earnings.

Some of these company’s valuation are getting attractive once again as prices corrected in the last 2 weeks. This wasn’t music to the ears for those that are already invested. On the ground, I heard of many investors who took this opportunity to average down (buying at lower prices to lower the average prices). However, some investors seemed to have cracked under pressure and started asking why dollar cost averaging is not working.

Today, this article seeks to explain why dollar cost averaging is not working on China’s stocks… yet.

What is Dollar Cost Averaging (DCA)?

You probably have heard of this term Dollar Cost Averaging (DCA) from a friendly Financial Services Consultant as he was talking about investment. This strategy was made popular to retail investors as a way to invest by reducing the impact on volatility (the ups and downs) in the stock market.

“Time in the market, not timing the market”. This quote always serves as a reminder that investing (not speculation) is about being in the market and not timing the market. (Read More: Why Buy Low And Sell High Is Useless Advice).

Dollar Cost Averaging
Dollar Cost Averaging (Source)

The power of dollar cost averaging is making volatility your friend by buying at regular intervals. It is your objective to own as many shares as possible. In the above example, you are invest $1000 for 6 months.

Month #1: Share Price $10. You will be able to buy 100 shares ($1000/10 = 100)

Month #2: Share Price $13. You will be able to buy 77 shares now ($1000/13 ≈ 77). You have 177 (100+77) shares now. The total capital is $2000. The total value of your shares $2301 (177*$13). At this moment, you are profiting $301.

Month #3: Share Price $6. You will be able to buy 167 shares now ($1000/6 ≈ 167). You have 344 (100+77+167) shares now. The total capital is $3000. The total value of your shares $2064 (344*$6).  At this moment, you are losing $939. Most people starts to open their warchest now.

Month #4: Share Price $10.98. You will be able to buy 91 shares now ($1000/10.98 ≈ 91). You have 435 (100+77+167+91) shares now. The total capital is $4000. The total value of your shares $4776.30 (435*$10.98). At this moment, you are profiting $776.30 again. You are happy again.

Month #5: Share Price $7. You will be able to buy 143 shares ($1000/7≈143). You have 578 (100+77+167+91+143) shares now. The total capital is $5000. The total value of your shares $4046 (578*7). At this moment, you are losing $954 again. Some people start to freak out and wonder why dollar cost averaging is not working. In the case of China, the chart has been one direction downwards and “the moment” in the time for losses are prolonged.

This is the reason why people feel that dollar cost averaging is not working… yet.

Month #6: Share Price $10. You buy 100 shares. In total, you would have 678 shares. Total capital $6000. The total value of your shares $6780. You are profiting again.

You are making volatility your friend

Dollar cost averaging works when there are ups and downs. Currently, as the Chinese market is down, you will feel that it is not working. When the market recovers, DCA will suddenly “work again”. At this point, you will often hear people start talking about their investment gains.

“Time in the market, not timing the market”. 

I had to copy the quote again. Remember that investing (not speculation) is about buying shares of the companies/funds/assets you want through time. Dollar Cost Averaging is just one way that you can consider to invest.

Final Thoughts

You are not alone in this journey. I believe that there are many who have invested in the Chinese market because of good valuation. Of course, there will be non believers of Chinese market because of their tight regulations. At the end of the day, it is about investing with the strategy that you are most comfortable with.

You can buy stock tips. But you can never buy conviction.

Ask yourself if the asset allocation strategy fits your profile. Engage a professional to finetune the strategy. Lastly, do start. With every crisis, comes an opportunity.

With every crisis comes an opportunity
With every crisis comes an opportunity

Chengkok is a licensed Financial Services Consultant since 2012. He is an Investment and Critical Illness Specialist. Wealthdojo was created in 2019 to educate and debunk “free financial advice” that was given without context.  

Feel Free To Reach Out To Share Your Thoughts.

Contact: 94316449 (Whatsapp) chengkokoh@gmail.com (Email)
Telegram: Wealthdojo [Continuous Learning Channel]
Reviews: About Me

The views and opinions expressed in this publication are those of the author and do not reflect the official policy or position of any other agency, organisation, employer or company. Assumptions made in the analysis are not reflective of the position of any entity other than the author.

3 Things To Know Before You Do CPF Shielding

3 Things To Know Before You Do CPF Shielding

As the population gets financially educated especially when it comes to the usage of CPF, the idea of CPF-SA shielding is gaining traction. Some says it is a “loophole” and wants this to be closed. Personally, I think it is weird to call it that way. It is like calling investing a loophole because it helps you achieve financial freedom.

If you have read my articles before, you would be aware that context is very important for planning and today’s focus will be the 3 things to know before you do CPF-SA Shielding.

3 Things To Know Before You Do CPF Shielding
3 Things To Know Before You Do CPF Shielding (Beautiful Photo From NME)

What is CPF SA Shield?

At age of 55, your Retirement Account (RA) will be funded from your Special Account (SA) first and then your Ordinary Account (OA) to make up Full Retirement Sum (FRS).

Read More: 5 Things You Need To Know About Your CPF

As SA gives 4% interest as compared to OA 2.5%, there is an interest (pun intended) to keep monies in SA. The idea of CPF-SA shielding is to fund your RA with more of your OA than SA by transferring your SA monies out temporarily.

So what can go wrong?

Read More: 5 mistakes people make using their CPF

Context. It is always about context. In my own opinion, not everyone should/can do shielding.

 

Context #1: Paying For Mortgage Using CPF-OA

Your CPF-OA contribution rate at age 56 is 12%. Using an salary of $6000 (Ordinary Wage Ceiling is $6000 anyway), $720/month goes into your CPF-OA. If your monthly mortgage is > $720/month, you might be using your previous CPF-OA contribution if you don’t want to use cash. (There is a whole literature on why you should use cash but we will leave it for another discussion).

When you do CPF-shielding, your CPF-OA balance drastically reduces and this might mean that you would need to use cash for your mortgage. This might adversely affect your cashflow in future.

 

Context #2: It Assumes You Know Where to Park your Money Temporary

There are several instruments that you can consider purchasing using your CPF-SA. Different investment carries different risk. It is most important to know your own risk profile or work with someone who can do that for you. Even money market funds carries it’s own unique set of risk. Please take time to understand the benefits and risk of your chosen funds.

To illustrate an example: Mr Suay bought $100,000 worth of Singapore Bond Funds using his CPF-SA to do shielding at the age of 54. Before Mr Suay could sell the Singapore Bond Funds, there was an economic crisis. Typically, volatility of bond funds are not high. However, because of the crisis, Mr Suay may see his Singapore Bond Funds be worth $90,000 now. Mr Suay may experience losses if he wishes to sell it and put it back into his CPF-SA.

And yes, there may be transaction costs involved. Please do the calculations to see if it is worth it.

Sidetrack: It is only when you know what the risk is, then you can learn how to manage those risk. It might be unwise to avoid risk altogether.

 

Context #3: If you are risk adverse

Every trained financial professional will be able to find out your risk profile by doing a questionnaire. If you happen to be a risk adverse individual, this might not be the best strategy for you.

It is okay to be risk adverse. I think everyone of you will have a different experience with money. There is nothing wrong planning your financial journey as a risk adverse individual. It just means the instruments that you will be using will be different from the rest. There is nothing wrong with that. You are uniquely you.

 

Final Thoughts

I believe that are merits of doing CPF-SA shielding if done well. The most important consideration is to see if this strategy makes sense to you. The context of the strategy is very important. It may not be applicable to some out there especially if they fall into #1, #2 or #3 as explained above.

If you wish to find out if CPF-SA shield is applicable for you, please do reach out to me.

Till then, take care!

Read More: CPF Accrued Interest Trap

Chengkok is a licensed Financial Services Consultant since 2012. He is an Investment and Critical Illness Specialist. Wealthdojo was created in 2019 to educate and debunk “free financial advice” that was given without context.  

Feel Free To Reach Out To Share Your Thoughts.

Contact: 94316449 (Whatsapp) chengkokoh@gmail.com (Email)
Telegram: Wealthdojo [Continuous Learning Channel]
Reviews: About Me

The views and opinions expressed in this publication are those of the author and do not reflect the official policy or position of any other agency, organisation, employer or company. Assumptions made in the analysis are not reflective of the position of any entity other than the author.

Why Buy Low And Sell High Is Useless Advice

Why Buy Low And Sell High Is Useless Advice

I hope this will be the last negatively titled article. So much bad advices have been given out of context by gurus such that I felt that someone have to make a stand when it comes to these advice. The previous article Why Buy Term And Invest The Rest Is Bad Advice captured many eyeballs but I would much prefer to build a personal finance site that is more positively charged.

Today, the article focus mostly on the strategy buy low, sell high and why it is useless.

Why Buy Low And Sell High Is Useless Advice
Why Buy Low And Sell High Is Useless Advice

 

What is Buy Low and Sell High?

The intention for investment is very simple. It is to make money (repeat this in your mind). When you make an investment, you must have every intention for your investment to grow in value in future. Take an example of Facebook (FB). In 18 May 2012, the share price of FB was $38. When you invest into FB at that time, you would have strongly believe it would grow. Today, 9 July 2021, the share price is $350. You would have made 816% by “buying low and selling high”.

Why Buy Low And Sell High Is Useless Advice Meaningless Facebook Stock Chart
Why Buy Low And Sell High Is Useless Advice: Meaningless Facebook Stock Chart

This advice is often easy to say but in reality very difficult to do. Worse, there are many experts out there who will confidently claim that they have a secret system to buying low and selling high.

I offer you 3 reasons why this advice often does more harm than good.

 

It Assumes A Trading Mindset

If you see any guru who preach about “investing in the long run” and “buy low and sell high”, run away and run away fast. These 2 concepts simply DO NOT mix well together.

The notion of “buying low and selling high” suggests that there is a certain price that you would like to buy and let go. Often, these entry and exit points are obtain from the study of charts (technical analysis). In most cases, the timeframe of this strategy is shorter in nature to make a profit in the stock market.

If you have invested into FB for the long run in 2012, you would be in a lot of pain thinking when to sell simply because FB would have repeated tested the all time highs every few months. The whole intention of “investing in the long run” would be thrown off course because this person is constantly thinking when to sell. Simply put, “investing in the long run” and “buy low and sell high” do not mix well.

At this juncture, I would like to state that if this individual is having a trading mindset. The “buy low and sell high” make sense. It is the essence of his investment thesis as much as “trend is your friend”. But not if you are a long term investor.

 

It Assumes A Symmetry of Returns

The phrase “buy low and sell high” implies that the stock market goes up 50% of the time and goes down 50% of the time. I believe that it would work well in that situation.

However, in reality this isn’t the case. Bull market are persistent. Bear market don’t last very long. Therefore, the cost of waiting for the “low” is extremely high.

To illustrate this case, UBS demonstrated this with 3 portfolios.

#1: Buy and hold

#2: Sells when the S&P 500 hits a new all-time high, buying back into the market after a 5% drop

#3: Sells at S&P 500 record highs, buying back after a 10% correction

Starting from 1960, an USD$100 investment would be worth the following in 2018 (when the article was written)

#1: $28,645 (Yes. No typo here)

#2: $422

#3: $390

You can see that strategy #1 beats the other “buy low, sell high” strategy hands down. The cost of waiting is terribly high if you follow a strict “buy low, sell high” strategy.

 

It Assumes A Strong Psychological Mindset

While, it is almost impossible to know when the worst days are, buying low is not easy at all. I will take the most current event as an example.

Disclaimer: This is not a buy/sell recommendation.

Alibaba (BABA) stock price plunged down to a new low at $205 (9 July 2021).

In 27 March 2018, revenue for BABA is 226.9 B Yuen. Share price was $192.

In 31 March 2021, revenue for BABA is 798.6 B Yuen. Share price was $229.

While revenue increased 250%, share price only grew 19%. This new low has been attributed to the CCP (Chinese Communist Party) clamping down on Chinese Technology Stocks. Several gurus are calling “sell” because of regulatory risk. Many bloggers are also selling BABA because of “opportunity cost” and believe that money could be put into other counters that is in momentum now. Honestly, I don’t blame them. It is not easy to see your stock price being beaten again and again. It isn’t psychologically easy when price is down. Nobody likes to be wrong. Nobody likes to be wrong for days, months or years. Often, people may even sell at a lost because it may be psychologically difficult.

Long term value investors however are adding into BABA. Among which, Charlie Munger and Mohnish Pabrai are the more noticeable names that are adding into BABA.

 

Final Thoughts

Disclaimer: I have mentioned some companies above for illustrative purposes. These are not and should not be taken as a buy/sell recommendation.

Personally, I think “buy low and sell  high” is an over-simplistic investment thesis. While, it is easy to explain it in theory, reality often paints a different picture. I feel that you should focus on simple, actionable and personalized investment thesis to help yourself achieve the financial freedom that you want.

 

Chengkok is a licensed Financial Services Consultant since 2012. He is an Investment and Critical Illness Specialist. Wealthdojo was created in 2019 to educate and debunk “free financial advice” that was given without context.  

Feel Free To Reach Out To Share Your Thoughts.

Contact: 94316449 (Whatsapp) chengkokoh@gmail.com (Email)
Telegram: Wealthdojo [Continuous Learning Channel]
Reviews: About Me

The views and opinions expressed in this publication are those of the author and do not reflect the official policy or position of any other agency, organisation, employer or company. Assumptions made in the analysis are not reflective of the position of any entity other than the author.

My SRS Portfolio June 2021

My SRS Portfolio and Thoughts [June 2021]

My SRS Portfolio June 2021
My SRS Portfolio June 2021

It is scary how time flies. It was 3 months since the last updates. Here are some of my thoughts on the SRS portfolio.

The Standard Disclaimer: This is not and should not be taken as a buy/sell recommendation.

Before looking into using SRS to invest, these are some links you should read first before continuing.

Start Here: The $1 SRS Strategy

Basic Knowledge: 5 things you need to know about SRS when you are 40 and older

Your SRS Overseas Retirement Guide: 3 things you need to know about SRS if you plan to leave Singapore

For 40s and above: 10 SRS Investments to Consider Especially if you are 40 and older

Income Tax and SRS: How Much Is My Income Taxes [2021 Edition]

SRS Portfolio March 2021.

 

My Thoughts and Consideration

My SRS Portfolio June 2021 Data
My SRS Portfolio June 2021 Data

The price for SGX: HST is an ETF which tracks the biggest technology stocks in China seems to be under pressure possibly due to the USA-China trade tensions and also regulatory risk in China. However, business fundamentals have not change. This will remain as a core position in the portfolio. Unfortunately, the portfolio is lagging the US market due to a heavy exposure into this ETF.

Manulife REITS BTOU Q12021 Highlights
Manulife REITS BTOU Q12021 Highlights

SGX: BTOU fundamental numbers to be be quite stable. In the AGM, the management mentioned that tenants are gradually bringing their employees back to office, with the physical occupancy of 13% in Jan 2021 to 20% as of May 2021. Management are also opened to reviewing potential acquisitions across sectors. This could be good news for shareholders if the property is yield accretive. This will continue to be a core position in the portfolio.

New injections into my SRS might happen at the end of 2021. The injection depends on the potential taxable income in 2021. I’m currently looking into a product that is offered by an insurance company. The investment engine sounds great as it focus on value and growth companies which is the objective of my SRS portfolio.

 

Final Thoughts

Disclaimer: this is not and should not be taken as a buy/sell recommendation. Like what Charlie Munger famously said: the big money is not in the buying or selling.. but in the waiting.

Are you investing your SRS well?

Chengkok is a licensed Financial Services Consultant since 2012. He is an Investment and Critical Illness Specialist. Wealthdojo was created in 2019 to educate and debunk “free financial advice” that was given without context.  

Feel Free To Reach Out To Share Your Thoughts.

Contact: 94316449 (Whatsapp) chengkokoh@gmail.com (Email)
Telegram: Wealthdojo [Continuous Learning Channel]
Reviews: About Me

The views and opinions expressed in this publication are those of the author and do not reflect the official policy or position of any other agency, organisation, employer or company. Assumptions made in the analysis are not reflective of the position of any entity other than the author.

Why Buy Term And Invest The Rest Is Bad Advice

Why Buy Term And Invest The Rest Is Bad Advice

Why Buy Term And Invest The Rest Is Bad Advice Ferrari Joke
Why Buy Term And Invest The Rest Is Bad Advice: Ferrari Joke

Most of you might have read this joke before. Personally, I think it is easy to give a “good advice” like “stop smoking, invest the money and you will get a Ferrari in 15 years”. Realistically, is that true? I discovered that most people do not take context or circumstances into account before giving  “good advice”. This “good advice” might serve as no practical value at all if it is not applicable to the person.

In the financial world, we have many “good advice” around. In this article, I hope to debunk one “good advice”: “Buy Term And Invest The Rest”.

Speaking about advice: I’m a financial planner and here are 3 pieces of money advice no one ever wants to hear.

 

What is ‘Buy Term And Invest The Rest”?

John (imaginary figure) wants to plan for his financial journey. He read a few articles online and discovered that there are many people recommending “Buy Term And Invest The Rest”.

Buy Term: He can consider buying a Term policies for his insurance needs. A Term policy’s regular premium are generally cheaper than Whole Life Policies or an Investment Linked Policies (ILP) that serves his insurance needs (broadly speaking).

Invest The Rest: Because his regular premiums are generally cheaper, he now has more budget to invest in the stock market. He wants to invest in low cost ETFs (exchange traded funds) to reduce any fees. With low charges, this will take care of his wealth accumulation needs.

This sounds great. Personally, I think this is a great advice and a possible strategy for John to consider in his investment journey.

 

Then Why Do I Think It is “Bad Advice”?

Why Buy Term And Invest The Rest Is Bad Advice
Why Buy Term And Invest The Rest Is Bad Advice

This very simplistic advice often do more harm than good. One example that I would like to draw reference is giving advice to someone to lose weight. The secret to losing weight is very “simple”. All you need to do is just “Eat Healthy Food, Eat Less, Exercise More”. Yet, adult obesity rates in the USA (2017) is a shocking 42.4%. If people already knows this secret, then why are there still so many people who are obese?

This is because everyone’s circumstances and context is different! Duh.

Do you know that price of healthier food is around 2X of unhealthy food? For a person who is living from paycheck from paycheck, how would he/she be able to afford this new diet?

Do you know 95% of diets fail? For a person who has been on a donut diet for most of his/her life, would it be easy to follow this diet?

The conversation today is not about diet. By using the example of weight lost, I hope to be emphasize that everyone is different. This same advice could work for someone with a certain set of mindset and circumstances (maybe he is rich, having a 6 hours work week and a can-do mindset). But not for everyone.

 

So Why Is Buy Term and Invest the Rest “bad advice”?

Frankly, this advice works. But it only works with a given set of circumstances and context. You can consider this advice if you resonate with the following.

Balanced/Adventurous Risk Profile

I have the privilege of speaking to many people in my career. I have came across some partners and clients who are risk adverse in nature. They do not enjoy fluctuations in their asset prices nor do they like to see losses in their assets. Their favorite asset classes are typically fixed deposits, endowment or bonds. A stock portfolio may not be very suitable for this person’s character. Imagine if you force this individual to buy the ARK K ETF, I willing to bet that he/she will not be able to sleep well at night.

Long Holding Period

In theory, we should all be like Warren Buffett who has an “infinite” holding period. Buy term, invest the rest works ONLY if the person invest the rest and continues to invest the rest. However, this is something we don’t see practically.

A simple question to ask yourself or your friends would be this: when was the last time you sold a stock?

The average holding period of US stocks is 5.5 months. The average holding period for SGX stocks is 10 months. ETFs are slightly better. The average holding period for ETF is 6 years. If statistics shows that an average someone is only willing to hold for that short a period, then wouldn’t you be “investing the rest” temporarily? Will this help you achieve your financial goals?

I do acknowledge that there is a combination of factors that contribute to the short holding period. One example is cheap transactional cost. This seemingly good benefit actually destroyed wealth all around the world. In the past, transaction costs to trade was relatively higher that people are more willing to do it only when necessary. Because of the cheap transactional cost now, people are entering and exiting the market as if they are buying groceries in the market. Where did the long term investing go?

But my favourite is the “fear of market crash”. From 2008 until 2020, there have been thousands if not millions of articles/youtubers/gurus world wide calling for market crashes every single year. This keeps people from “investing the rest” into the stock market because they are afraid the market will crash every other month (read this again). Missing the five best days when you’re otherwise fully invested drops your overall return by 35%! Missing the best 10 days will more than halve your long-term returns. Research has again shown that not fully invested will have disastrous effects in the long run. Are you really investing in the long run?

Strong Emotional Stability (in the market)

Investing in the market is not easy. It does not matter if it is a passive strategy or an active one. Imagine if you open your brokerage account one day to see your robo-investing strategy lost 20% of your capital, will you feel afraid and fear that it will continue to drop?

I know there are some who will feel excited. However, I doubt this will apply to the general population.

Investment/Financial Planning Knowledge

When you buy term and invest the rest, there is a strong assumption that you know very specifically the kind of coverage you want and the structure for your insurance needs. At the same time, it also suggests that you know enough about stocks or ETFs to invest appropriately for the long run.

I do acknowledge that there are indeed talented individuals out there that really can do it. They don’t spend hours, they spend decades of their lives to master their financial planning.

Are you spending enough time to acquire these knowledge?

So What Is A Better Advice?

An advice is only good when an individual is able to act upon it in his unique circumstances and context. The best advice are often discovered through brainstorming, asking and answering good questions and also working with someone who is good at doing that.

Just like the best companies in the world hire the best minds in their strategy department, you should also “hire” the best minds to help you in your financial journey.

“Buy term and invest the rest” is a great strategy. However, it only works for a very specific group of individuals. You may or may not be suitable for this strategy. Remember, everyone is different.

 

Final Thoughts

I believe it is more important to focus on your priorities and your financial needs instead. It would be wise to rethink if these heavily blogged strategies (buy term and invest the rest) can serve you in your financial needs in your unique circumstances and context.

 

Chengkok is a licensed Financial Services Consultant since 2012. He is an Investment and Critical Illness Specialist. Wealthdojo was created in 2019 to educate and debunk “free financial advice” that was given without context.  

Feel Free To Reach Out To Share Your Thoughts.

Contact: 94316449 (Whatsapp) chengkokoh@gmail.com (Email)
Telegram: Wealthdojo [Continuous Learning Channel]
Reviews: About Me

The views and opinions expressed in this publication are those of the author and do not reflect the official policy or position of any other agency, organisation, employer or company. Assumptions made in the analysis are not reflective of the position of any entity other than the author.