Why is it not easy to invest in the long run

Why is it not easy to invest in the long run?

In the most recent webinar that I conducted, I asked the participants what are they concerned about when it comes to investing in the long run?

I thought that most people’s answer would the lack of time or the inexperience in the market. It turns out that for most people, they are not too sure if they are doing it right.

Why is it not easy to invest in the long run
Why is it not easy to invest in the long run

If you think about it using a proxy, it is like a person driving on the roads but unsure if they driving properly. If this is not risky, I don’t know what is.

The Why

Fear Of Missing Out FOMO
Fear Of Missing Out FOMO

As we get more plugged into the internet, social news gets spread very quickly. With more people getting stuck at home during the COVID-19 period, we log in more to these social platforms to keep updated on the world around us.

One popular topic is how people are getting rich during the pandemic. Topics like Bitcoin, NFTs, Value Investing or Growth Investing gets thrown around. Because it seems that every Tom, Dick and Harry is doing it, people fear missing out and started participating into these.

Redefine Basics

Investing is the act of allocating resources (usually money) to buy an asset, in hopes of reselling it later at a higher price (Definition from Investopedia).

For most people, they get the concept that they will make money when the price goes up. I believe there is a certain form of Social Investing (a term that I just made up) going around in the recent market. Reddit has made certain stocks like Gamestop pop. Elon Musk has certainly contributed to the popularity of Bitcoin and Tesla. One thing for sure is that prices seems to be influenced by social pressures.

While it has created some millionaires, some people are unsure what they are doing anymore.

The art of investing starts from buying an asset. This concept seems to have lost its’ way in this season.

Our Mind Plays Tricks

Let’s play a game. Find a place to record your answer for Quiz A and B.

Quiz A

Choice #1: You get a 100% chance of getting $50.

Choice #2: You get a 50% chance of getting $100, 50% chance of getting $0.

Write down which one will you choose?

Quiz B

Choice #1: You get a 100% chance of losing $50.

Choice #2: You get a 50% chance of losing $100, 50% chance of losing $0.

In a 1979 experiment by Daniel Kahneman and Amos Tversky, it is discovered that most people choose Choice #1 for Quiz A and Choice #2 for Quiz B.

However, if you understand it mathematically, you should be indifferent between all the 2 choices in Quiz A or Quiz B. The expected value of both Choices in Quiz A are the same (i.e. +$50), while the expected value of both Choices in Quiz B are the same (i.e. -$50), so there should be no difference (at least mathematically) between the Choices in either Quiz. (Thank you Kok Ming for your help)

This tells us that as humans, we feel losses more keenly than gains (loss aversion). That’s probably the reason why you might have taken gains off the table early out of fear and hold onto large losing positions in the hope that they will rebound.

Our minds are not wired to maximise performance but to minimize regret.

Anyway, that’s just one problem. These are other cognitive bias we need to overcome as investors.

Cognitive Bias Investing
Cognitive Bias Investing

So What Can You Do?

Now that you understand that the society and your own mind is against you, what can you do? I would humbly like to suggest 3 steps.

#1: Get financially educated and informed of the investment process.

#2: Focus on the controllable.

#3: Consider a multi asset class portfolio to minimise drawdown.

Why is it not easy to invest in the long run education
Why is it not easy to invest in the long run education

This graph records the S&P500 gains and losses over the past 60 years. The stock market can be considered like the following season (Spring and Winter). The average period for Spring (we love Spring don’t we) is 57 months and the average period for Winter (we don’t like the cold) is 12 months.

IF we are in a crisis now, it typically takes around 12 months before it is spring again. In the more recent COVID-19 crisis, the winter lasted around 6 months (Feb21 to Aug21) before roaring back into Spring again.

It is what you do during winter that determines your financial results. Getting financially educated allows you to prepare for such opportunities.

Dollar Cost Averaging VS Buying the Dips
Dollar Cost Averaging VS Buying the Dips

Let’s assume that you can predict each and every dip (technically impossible) and buy them (further assuming you have the mental resilience to buy at the lowest). Do you know that Dollar Cost Averaging (DCA) beats buying the dip in this time period? Instead of focusing on the unknowns or black swan events, why not focus on what’s controllable which is doing simple Dollar Cost Averaging?

Novel Investor Asset Class Returns TableSource: NovelInvestor.com

As you can see, different asset class performs differently every year. Because our minds are loss averse in nature, we might not be able to weather through each storms if we are only into one asset class. Consider a multi asset portfolio might make it easier for our minds to weather through each storms when it comes.

Final Thoughts

Personally, I’m invested in the long run. In investment, there will be volatility and it is something we have be comfortable with either through education, experience or both.

Do you related to the above? Let me know in the comments below.

Chengkok is a licensed Financial Services Consultant since 2012. He is an Investment and Critical Illness Specialist. Wealthdojo was created in 2019 to educate and debunk “free financial advice” that was given without context.  

Feel Free To Reach Out To Share Your Thoughts.

Contact: 94316449 (Whatsapp) chengkokoh@gmail.com (Email)
Telegram: Wealthdojo [Continuous Learning Channel]
Reviews: About Me

The views and opinions expressed in this publication are those of the author and do not reflect the official policy or position of any other agency, organisation, employer or company. Assumptions made in the analysis are not reflective of the position of any entity other than the author.

Biggest Crash In History By Rich Dad

Greatest Crash In History? By Rich Dad

Biggest Crash In History By Rich Dad
Biggest Crash In History By Rich Dad

You probably would have known him. Robert Kiyosaki is famously known for being the author of “Rich Dad, Poor Dad”. My friends and I religiously read his books and I felt that it was a good place to start off with for financial literacy.

The concepts he came up with was simple, easy and gamified. You might have played his Cashflow 101 game in your pursuit of earning knowledge.

This time round, he has gained media attention again for crying the the market will be crashed in October 2021.

A disclaimer as usual. This is by no means a recommendation to buy or sell any securities or financial assets.

His Predictions For October 2021

His thesis: The Evergrande looming default will spread it’s way to the USA market. Debt positions in the US is worsening. Therefore, he feels like it will be good to buy gold, silver and bitcoin but later changed it to keep some in cash.

The above is a possible interpretation from his twitter.

Robert’s Track Record

If you read his books, you will get an idea that Robert is a big fan of debt. He used debt to create huge amount of passive income by purchasing properties.

He also believes that fiat money is worth lesser and lesser due to the extensively QE. As a result, savers are being punished and that hyperinflation will come in future. He is a big believer in Gold because there is value in Gold and have recently talked more about cryptocurrencies.

The very first time (in my memory) when he talked about market crash was in 2015. He believes that a huge market crash will happen in 2016. Of course, it didn’t really happen.

In 2018, he believes that market is going to get a lot worse and we are heading into bear territory. This was the period of time when the FED was raising interest rates.

In 2020, he believes that COVID19 was the final catalyst for the market to move away from traditional assets like stocks and bonds. However, market has already crashed at the time so there wasn’t any prediction for this.

In 2021, he believes that the market will truly crash in Oct 2021.

It is also no secret that he has been talking about investing into Gold, Sliver and Bitcoin.

Biggest Crash In History By Rich Dad Tweet Gold Sliver Bitcoin
Biggest Crash In History By Rich Dad Tweet Gold Sliver Bitcoin

What I Think About His Predictions

Next year, I will be celebrating my 10th year in the financial industry. I read extensively, upgraded my knowledge and here’s what I think about his predictions.

While there is nothing wrong about having a prediction, I personally feel that Robert has a deep sense of distrust in the financial system and he is extremely bearish in nature.

I don’t know whether he is right about this prediction and I’m in no position to say so. However, his money script (more on this in the articles in future) caused him to react very negatively to money. His focus is on money being money. He will be right if people start to question the existence of fiat money and stop using fiat money altogether. As a results, gold silver and bitcoin may become storage of value then. It is a long shot but who knows.

Over the last 5 years, Gold has been doing relatively okay. If he have bought it 5 years ago (as he said he did), Gold would roughly 38% up or around 6% CAGR depending on his entry.

Biggest Crash In History By Rich Dad Gold Prices Trend
Biggest Crash In History By Rich Dad Gold Prices Trend

Final Thoughts

Personally, I’m invested in the long run. In investment, there will be volatility and it is something we have be comfortable with either through education, experience or both. Are you looking to learn about investment?

What do you feel about Robert Kiyosaki’s prediction? Let me know in the comments below.

Chengkok is a licensed Financial Services Consultant since 2012. He is an Investment and Critical Illness Specialist. Wealthdojo was created in 2019 to educate and debunk “free financial advice” that was given without context.  

Feel Free To Reach Out To Share Your Thoughts.

Contact: 94316449 (Whatsapp) chengkokoh@gmail.com (Email)
Telegram: Wealthdojo [Continuous Learning Channel]
Reviews: About Me

The views and opinions expressed in this publication are those of the author and do not reflect the official policy or position of any other agency, organisation, employer or company. Assumptions made in the analysis are not reflective of the position of any entity other than the author.

My SRS Portfolio Sept 2021

My SRS Portfolio and Thoughts [Sept 2021]

My SRS Portfolio Sept 2021
My SRS Portfolio Sept 2021

We are done to the last quarter for the year. Have you accomplished your goals? Hope that things have been going well for you. In any case, this article is a simple reporting for my SRS updates.

Disclaimers: This is not and should not be taken as a buy/sell recommendation.

If you would like to see my past quarter thoughts, you can refer to March2021 and June2021.

It is also close to the end of the year, you might be considering SRS investment. Please refer my most read SRS article, 5 Things You Need To Know About SRS to learn more.

My Thoughts And Consideration

My SRS Portfolio Sept 2021 Data
My SRS Portfolio Sept 2021 Data

The elephant in the room is the exposure into Chinese Technology Stocks (SGX:HST). It has obviously pulled down the entire portfolio as 50% of my portfolio is invested into it. Unfortunately, this SRS portfolio is still small and there is a concentration risk that I acknowledged.

Policymakers in China announced regulatory reforms that has impacted sectors like construction (think Evergrande), private education (think TAL Education Group) and Technology companies that are handling data (think Didi).

In the case of my SRS impact, it was due to the technology sector. As you can see in the Top ETF holding for SGX:HST, it haven’t been doing well year to date.

SGX HST ETF Top 25 Holdings
SGX HST ETF Top 25 Holdings

I remain positive in this exposure as this ETF is invested into quality Chinese companies that can deliver sustainable growth in the next 3 to 5 years. With high internet penetration in China, I believe the performance of the companies will follow suit.

SGX: BTOU is a recovery play in the portfolio. The recovery will depend on COVID19 recovery attempts in US. I’m optimistic that the recovery towards working in office will come in 3 to 5 years time.

Lastly, I’m still considering if I should inject new capital into the SRS portfolio.

Final Thoughts

Disclaimer: this is not and should not be taken as a buy/sell recommendation. Like what Charlie Munger famously said: the big money is not in the buying or selling.. but in the waiting.

We have be having a 3 parts webinar for last quarter of the year. Feel free to reach out to me for more information.

Chengkok is a licensed Financial Services Consultant since 2012. He is an Investment and Critical Illness Specialist. Wealthdojo was created in 2019 to educate and debunk “free financial advice” that was given without context.  

Feel Free To Reach Out To Share Your Thoughts.

Contact: 94316449 (Whatsapp) chengkokoh@gmail.com (Email)
Telegram: Wealthdojo [Continuous Learning Channel]
Reviews: About Me

The views and opinions expressed in this publication are those of the author and do not reflect the official policy or position of any other agency, organisation, employer or company. Assumptions made in the analysis are not reflective of the position of any entity other than the author.

 

 

Investment Webinars 2021

Investment Webinars 2021

After the CPF webinar on April 2021, some of you have been asking if there would be more this year. As 2021 has been an interesting year, I wanted to consolidate all the lessons during this period of time and it took longer than expected. It is already September and in less than 24 days, we will be in our final quarter of the year.

Investment Webinars 2021
Investment Webinars 2021

There will be 3 upcoming webinars on various topics. These are suitable for new and experienced investors who wants to compound their money by investing in the stock market. Dates are to be confirmed for now. You can consider joining our Telegram Chat for the latest updates on the webinar.

#1: How to strategically invest for the long term?

In my other article on “Why Buy Term and Invest The Rest is Bad advice“, I uncovered shocking statistics.

Although most people says that they are a long term investor, the truth as shown by statistics is that not many people are like that. My observation is that most investors especially on YouTube tends to have a shorter horizon in nature.

I believe that investment in the long run is as important as taking care of your health in the long run. The focus on the webinar is on the following.

  • Letting market volatility be in your favor. 

The market has been volatile recently and it will continue to be like that in future. However, this keeps people from investing as they are always afraid of market crash and correction. Research has again shown that not fully invested will have disastrous effects in the long run. Just missing the five best days when you’re otherwise fully invested drops your overall return by 35%! We will explore how to let market volatility be in our favor.

  • Investment Styles

Value Investing has been made popular by Warren Buffett across the decades. However, there is a new investment style called Growth Investing. This has been making rounds across Facebook due to the huge momentum that happened in 2021. Active investment is also back in trend as volatility often invites more players into the market. We will seek to explore the pros and cons of each style and how to potentially combine them together.

  • What is my End Game?

It is equally important to know when you can live on your investment portfolio. The transformation of the investment portfolio to serve as an income source for retirement. This is the reason why people start to invest in the first place. We will seek how it all make sense in the grand scheme of things so that you know what’s your end game.

#2: Investment as an income

There are many ways to create income from your investment. There are dividends, bonds, derivatives etc. Seminar #2 is more straightforward than seminar #1. We will explore the following.

  1. The instruments that are available to create income from your investment
  2. What kind of instrument might be more suitable for you?
  3. The AUM (asset under management) needed to have a comfortable income.

This webinar will follow shortly after seminar 1.

#3: How to use SRS as an investment

This is one of my favourite topics and I have wrote extensively on the use of SRS. I have written a guide and here are some links that you should read before attending this workshop.

We will be focusing on what SRS is and how you can use it to investment and retire.

Final Thoughts

It will be a busy one month moving forward as I prepare for the 3 webinars. If you have any feedback, feel free to write to me and I look forward to seeing you for the next webinar.

Take care.

Chengkok is a licensed Financial Services Consultant since 2012. He is an Investment and Critical Illness Specialist. Wealthdojo was created in 2019 to educate and debunk “free financial advice” that was given without context.  

Feel Free To Reach Out To Share Your Thoughts.

Contact: 94316449 (Whatsapp) chengkokoh@gmail.com (Email)
Telegram: Wealthdojo [Continuous Learning Channel]
Reviews: About Me

The views and opinions expressed in this publication are those of the author and do not reflect the official policy or position of any other agency, organisation, employer or company. Assumptions made in the analysis are not reflective of the position of any entity other than the author.

Why Dollar Cost Averaging is Not Working On China's Stocks

Why Dollar Cost Averaging is Not Working On China’s Stocks?

Why Dollar Cost Averaging is Not Working On China's Stocks
Why Dollar Cost Averaging is Not Working On China’s Stocks… yet.

The last 2 weeks was a bumpy one for China’s stocks. Technology companies ranging from Alibaba, Tencent, Didi and all the way to the educational sector pretty much spooked investors all over the world. There was massive selling and it seemed to have paused after JD reported good earnings.

Some of these company’s valuation are getting attractive once again as prices corrected in the last 2 weeks. This wasn’t music to the ears for those that are already invested. On the ground, I heard of many investors who took this opportunity to average down (buying at lower prices to lower the average prices). However, some investors seemed to have cracked under pressure and started asking why dollar cost averaging is not working.

Today, this article seeks to explain why dollar cost averaging is not working on China’s stocks… yet.

What is Dollar Cost Averaging (DCA)?

You probably have heard of this term Dollar Cost Averaging (DCA) from a friendly Financial Services Consultant as he was talking about investment. This strategy was made popular to retail investors as a way to invest by reducing the impact on volatility (the ups and downs) in the stock market.

“Time in the market, not timing the market”. This quote always serves as a reminder that investing (not speculation) is about being in the market and not timing the market. (Read More: Why Buy Low And Sell High Is Useless Advice).

Dollar Cost Averaging
Dollar Cost Averaging (Source)

The power of dollar cost averaging is making volatility your friend by buying at regular intervals. It is your objective to own as many shares as possible. In the above example, you are invest $1000 for 6 months.

Month #1: Share Price $10. You will be able to buy 100 shares ($1000/10 = 100)

Month #2: Share Price $13. You will be able to buy 77 shares now ($1000/13 ≈ 77). You have 177 (100+77) shares now. The total capital is $2000. The total value of your shares $2301 (177*$13). At this moment, you are profiting $301.

Month #3: Share Price $6. You will be able to buy 167 shares now ($1000/6 ≈ 167). You have 344 (100+77+167) shares now. The total capital is $3000. The total value of your shares $2064 (344*$6).  At this moment, you are losing $939. Most people starts to open their warchest now.

Month #4: Share Price $10.98. You will be able to buy 91 shares now ($1000/10.98 ≈ 91). You have 435 (100+77+167+91) shares now. The total capital is $4000. The total value of your shares $4776.30 (435*$10.98). At this moment, you are profiting $776.30 again. You are happy again.

Month #5: Share Price $7. You will be able to buy 143 shares ($1000/7≈143). You have 578 (100+77+167+91+143) shares now. The total capital is $5000. The total value of your shares $4046 (578*7). At this moment, you are losing $954 again. Some people start to freak out and wonder why dollar cost averaging is not working. In the case of China, the chart has been one direction downwards and “the moment” in the time for losses are prolonged.

This is the reason why people feel that dollar cost averaging is not working… yet.

Month #6: Share Price $10. You buy 100 shares. In total, you would have 678 shares. Total capital $6000. The total value of your shares $6780. You are profiting again.

You are making volatility your friend

Dollar cost averaging works when there are ups and downs. Currently, as the Chinese market is down, you will feel that it is not working. When the market recovers, DCA will suddenly “work again”. At this point, you will often hear people start talking about their investment gains.

“Time in the market, not timing the market”. 

I had to copy the quote again. Remember that investing (not speculation) is about buying shares of the companies/funds/assets you want through time. Dollar Cost Averaging is just one way that you can consider to invest.

Final Thoughts

You are not alone in this journey. I believe that there are many who have invested in the Chinese market because of good valuation. Of course, there will be non believers of Chinese market because of their tight regulations. At the end of the day, it is about investing with the strategy that you are most comfortable with.

You can buy stock tips. But you can never buy conviction.

Ask yourself if the asset allocation strategy fits your profile. Engage a professional to finetune the strategy. Lastly, do start. With every crisis, comes an opportunity.

With every crisis comes an opportunity
With every crisis comes an opportunity

Chengkok is a licensed Financial Services Consultant since 2012. He is an Investment and Critical Illness Specialist. Wealthdojo was created in 2019 to educate and debunk “free financial advice” that was given without context.  

Feel Free To Reach Out To Share Your Thoughts.

Contact: 94316449 (Whatsapp) chengkokoh@gmail.com (Email)
Telegram: Wealthdojo [Continuous Learning Channel]
Reviews: About Me

The views and opinions expressed in this publication are those of the author and do not reflect the official policy or position of any other agency, organisation, employer or company. Assumptions made in the analysis are not reflective of the position of any entity other than the author.