What will happen after 2022

What will happen after 2022?

I don’t think I have to repeat how bizarre is the world is right now. After contracting COVID19, I sat down (actually slept down most of the time) and thought long and hard about how financial events are shaping our economy now.

There are events in the world and many are definitely out of our control. However, some of the effects will be trickled down to be felt by us. I will be talking about my thought of the 3 most important financial events that will affect us, inflation, interest rates and wages.

Disclaimers: All thoughts are mine alone. Though I would love to hear yours in the comments section below.

What will happen after 2022
What will happen after 2022

Inflation

This is Singapore’s annual inflation rate over the past 25 years. As Singapore is only independent for 57 years, this data is what Singapore has been facing half the time. You can see for majority of the time, inflation was “well behaved” at 2%. The exception would be spike in 2008 (Financial Crisis) and for a period between 2011 to 2013.

Interestingly, inflation in 2011 to 2013 was cause by largely on account of sharp increases in car and house prices amid scarce supply.


Table 1: Inflation. Source: tradingeconomics.com

While headline inflation is forecast to come in at between 4.5 per cent and 5.5 per cent, while core inflation is projected to average between 2.5 per cent and 3.5 per cent. I will be concerned about core inflation which you can see on the chart below that it went up beyond 4% in 2008. We are definitely feeling the heat with food, electricity and gas prices have been increasing.

Singapore Core Inflation
Singapore Core Inflation

I predict (mainly because of the lack of data and research) that we will be having a inflation > 2% for at least another 2 years before it gets back the usual range. I don’t think prices will fall when inflation becomes lower. Hence, make it a point to preserve the value of your money. This is especially important if you are nearly retirement or at retirement.

Interest Rates

Singapore Housing Loan VS Fixed Deposit Trend
Graph 1: Singapore Housing Loan VS Fixed Deposit Trend

Interest rates affects various financial instruments and in the graph above. I’m hearing a lot of chatter on 4 things on the ground.

Housing Loan

When interest rates raise, housing loan rates also raises. As you can see above, the last 10 years we were living in a low interest rate environment. In the last few months, home loans are starting to move upwards to 3% (fixed rate). The implication of this is a cashflow drain.

Imagine you are servicing a 30 years housing loan of $800,000 at an interest of 1.1% previously. Your monthly mortgage works out to be $2610.

At 2%, your monthly mortgage is $2957. This is an increase of $347 monthly or $4164 annually.

At 3%, your monthly mortgage is $3373. This is an increase of $763 monthly or $9,156 annually.

Can you see why people are worried when rates increases to 3% now?

If you are looking into floating rates, Singapore is using SORA now. SORA is 0.8089% p.a. (as at 4 July 2022). A typical spread of banks would be between 0.8% to 1.2% depending on your relationship with them. I would expect the floating rates (including spread) will be between 2% to 4% in the next 2 years.

Fixed Deposits

Hurray to those of you who are cash rich. Guaranteed rates never look better. We are seeing fixed deposit rates increasing with UOB giving 2% for a 2 year lock in. Other banks are also stepping up their interest rates too.

Disclaimer: This is by no means a buy/sell recommendation

UOB Fixed Deposit July 2022
UOB Fixed Deposit July 2022

Even the Singapore Saving Bonds are giving average 3% returns in July 2022.

Singapore Saving Bonds July 2022
Singapore Saving Bonds July 2022

Looking at data, I’m concerned as the Housing Loans (15 Years) and Fixed Deposit (1 Year) are highly correlated (see graph 1). The average difference between housing loan and fixed deposit over the years is 3.3%. This means that if Fixed Deposit is 1%, there is a chance that the housing loan could go to 4.1%.

Insurance Participating Policies

Just a year ago, people were terribly concerned about insurance companies’ ability to fulfill their participating policies (think endowment policies) illustrated rates. (Read More: Participating Funds Singapore Moving Forward ; Should You Be Concerned About Dropping Illustrated Rates)

The industry has realigned expectations in July 2021. The upper illustration rate will be capped at 4.25 per cent a year, down from 4.75 per cent, and the lower illustration rate will be capped at 3 per cent a year, down from 3.25 per cent.

The previous rate change was in was in 2013, when the upper illustration rate cap was reduced from 5.25 per cent to 4.75 per cent a year. The lower illustration rate was reduced from 3.75 per cent to 3.25 per cent.

The main reason was because of the low interest decade that we were living in.

Now that interest rates are moving up, will insurance companies increase the rates in the participating policy again?

CPF Interest Rates

In a low interest environment, our CPF interest rates looks like an attractive place to reap guaranteed interest (we are leaving context aside for this statement).

Imagine if fixed deposit rates are nearing 3.5% or even 4%, I think it is very important to pause and think if people who continue contributing to their CPF (putting context aside for now) if the rates are near parity.

CPF may lose attractiveness (for a while). That being said, the CPF may change interest rates from time to time. Personally, I doubt that will happen. I am already very appreciative that CPF has kept rates the same despite the prolonged low interest environment.

 

Wages Inflation

Isn’t this something to be celebrated? Local wages grow by 7.8% in Q1, outpacing inflation. I believe that this is because there is a shortage of labor with travel restrictions. If you are looking for an opportunity, this is one of the best timing to seek a higher paying job.

 

Final Thoughts

Like I said from the start, these are some thoughts that I have jotted down and my own personal predictions for the future. I would love to hear your thoughts in the comments below.

Last but not least, do consider your own context before making your decision. Do reach out if you wish to discuss with me.

 

Chengkok is a licensed Financial Services Consultant since 2012. He is an Investment and Critical Illness Specialist. Wealthdojo was created in 2019 to educate and debunk “free financial advice” that was given without context.  

Feel Free To Reach Out To Share Your Thoughts.

Contact: 94316449 (Whatsapp) chengkokoh@gmail.com (Email)
Telegram: Wealthdojo [Continuous Learning Channel]
Reviews: About Me

The views and opinions expressed in this publication are those of the author and do not reflect the official policy or position of any other agency, organisation, employer or company. Assumptions made in the analysis are not reflective of the position of any entity other than the author.

The Pros And Cons Of Dollar Cost Averaging

The Pros And Cons Of Dollar Cost Averaging

The Pros And Cons Of Dollar Cost Averaging
The Pros And Cons Of Dollar Cost Averaging

You might be thinking this is “another of those dollar cost averaging article”. I assure you that this is not. It is always during a Bear Market Survival that the topic of dollar cost averaging surfaces. Rarely, this topic is popular during a upward trending market.

Once a for all, I will discuss on the value of dollar cost averaging and what it can do in your portfolio. If you have been investing in China over the last year, you might think that dollar cost averaging is not working on China’s stocks? Read on and consider the pros and cons.

What is Dollar Cost Averaging (DCA)?

Dollar Cost Averaging is a popular investment method of investing equal amounts of money over a period of time. The opposite of this would be to invest a lump sum of money at once. I will leave you to read up about summary of DCA in this photo below.

Dollar Cost Averaging
Dollar Cost Averaging

Financial advisors are one group of people that preach about this because of the simplicity of the method. It is however, easier said than done as emotions might get better of us in the market.

One question you can ask yourself today ( 1st June 2022), are you still averaging down?

The Pros

  • Simple and systematic (if you set rules that continuously invest during ups and down): You don’t really “think” when you employ a DCA strategy. You simply trust the system and invest through the ups and downs. It will work BEST if it is via auto-transfer rather than manually transferring.
  • Downside protection: In a downward market, you will see a “bigger lost” if you do a lump sum strategy. For example, if the market corrected 20% in a month, your initial investment of $100,000 will be left with $80,000 (lost of $20,000). Now, if you do a DCA investing $10K per month, your initial investment will be left with $8,000 (lost of $2,000). You also have capital to continue investing at the “down” on the second month. For those that is retiring soon, this have great psychological benefits. I believe there is nobody that wants to lose 20% of their nest egg 6 months prior to retirement.

The Cons

  • FOMO (Fear of missing out): If this is an upward market, you risk missing out on the extra capital gains and compounding benefits. Using the same scenario as above, someone who invested $100,000 with a 20% run-up would make $20,000, while the investor DCA their first  $10k would’ve only made $2k.
  • Being too passive: DCA works best if the asset have a long term upward tread in nature. If the underlying investments are downward/sideways moving (take a look at the Japan market), DCA will not be the best strategy.

Final Thoughts

A big shout out to one of the most loyal reader of Wealthdojo Mr Sinkie. He sums up my thoughts on DCA in a single sentence. “DCA works best for assets that are volatile but have very long history of uptrend”. Thank you for being so patient and contributing to the blog. For those that are interested in his elaboration (I think you should), go over to Bear Market Survival Tips.

Looking forward to more people commenting on the blog.

If you guys need help, please reach out. I will be more than happy to have a conversation with you.

Chengkok is a licensed Financial Services Consultant since 2012. He is an Investment and Critical Illness Specialist. Wealthdojo was created in 2019 to educate and debunk “free financial advice” that was given without context.  

Feel Free To Reach Out To Share Your Thoughts.

Contact: 94316449 (Whatsapp) chengkokoh@gmail.com (Email)
Telegram: Wealthdojo [Continuous Learning Channel]
Reviews: About Me

The views and opinions expressed in this publication are those of the author and do not reflect the official policy or position of any other agency, organisation, employer or company. Assumptions made in the analysis are not reflective of the position of any entity other than the author.

Bear Market Survival Tips

Bear Market Survival Tips

I was hoping never to write this article because if you are here reading this, it could only means a few things.

  • We are in a bear market
  • You are in a long position with a possibility of being overleveraging
  • You don’t have a system that prepares you for this scenario

Whatever the reason you are here, I think it is quite certain that we are experience a market that is downward cha-cha.

Disclaimer: It is anybody’s guess where the market is going to be. This should not be taken as a buy/sell/hold recommendation. Please consider your own context or approach a financial advisor for advise.

Bear Market Survival Tips
Bear Market Survival Tips

Despite the fear, bear markets are nothing new. To put everyone on the same page, a bear market occurs when major stock indexes like the S&P 500 fall 20% or more from their most recent peak. They’ve occurred 12 times since 1946, which is on average once every 8 years. Most pullbacks above 20% have been associated with recessions. Hence, with the perfect long storm, politicians all over the world are most concerned about recessions.

On average, a bear market is around 9.5months. This would mean most of us will live to tell the tale assuming we are not shaken out of our position (mentally or by margin calls).

As I get more and more about how to invest in a bear market, I hope this article will be able to share with you some bear market survival tips to prepare yourself for the weeks to come.

Bear market survival tips

#1: Avoid making impulsive decisions

This makes the top of the list. Emotionally, people don’t like to be wrong (whether temporary or in the long run). Hence, when they see their portfolio in the red, many people have the temptation to “reset” their portfolio. This is detrimental to your wealth management journey and it is just a “quick fix” of escaping the mental strain.

Stay calm is the key in bear and highly volatile markets. If your time horizon is decades away, the best thing to do is to invest as if nothing has changed. Let me give you an example of a $1000 investment in the S&P 500 between 1/1/2009 and 12/31/2018 (the last market crash).

  • If you stayed invested the entire time, you’d have $2,775.
  • If you missed the 10 best-performing days during that period, your account value would be $1,722.
  • If you missed the 30 best-performing days in this 10-year period, you’d be left with $918.

I can’t emphasize how important it is to stay invested.

#2: Build your positions regularly over time

With dollar-cost-averaging (DCA), no thinking is really required. However, I recognized that it may not be easy. I saw friends who were excited about the recent bear market and have dollar cost average down the last few months.

However, they are all now NOT adding into new positions as the market is still going down. DCA is somewhat easy to say but not easy to execute consistently unless there is a system that is set up. Personally, I have averaged down on the China Market previously and it is still a bleeding position (Check out my latest SRS positions).

Time will tell. That being said, stay tune for my upcoming article: The pros and cons of dollar cost averaging.

#3: Change your strategy, diversify or play defensive

As a wealth manager, I realized risk management is something that I constantly address. If you’re still active in the markets and it is not working anymore, it might be time go passive with a lazy portfolio. If you find yourself taking too much risk, you might want to seek a more defensive portfolio.

Your current life stage might not allow you to take too much risk as compared to before. It is vital to re-assess your situation, your goals, your risk tolerance and discuss with a professional on your options.

#4: Go contrarian (Not recommended)

If you are a trader, you know better than to go against the trend. Consider taking a buy put options position to bet against a stock or ETF, this allows you to have a limited downside (as you are a buyer of the put option) and able to participate in the downward trending market.

WARNING: I have to emphasize that buying options is speculative. They may expire and be worthless if you do not have a game plan. If you are wondering what this is, do not do it. 

Final Thoughts

Stay strong. This may be the pivoting moment in your investment journey. There are so many resources you can turn to nowadays to prepare for a bear market. You can consider what Warren Buffett is doing amidst the noises.

Definitely reach out if you need help. I will be more than happy to have a conversation with you.

Otherwise, please watch out for my next article: The Pros and Cons of Dollar Cost Averaging. [Update: The article is out!]

 

Chengkok is a licensed Financial Services Consultant since 2012. He is an Investment and Critical Illness Specialist. Wealthdojo was created in 2019 to educate and debunk “free financial advice” that was given without context.  

Feel Free To Reach Out To Share Your Thoughts.

Contact: 94316449 (Whatsapp) chengkokoh@gmail.com (Email)
Telegram: Wealthdojo [Continuous Learning Channel]
Reviews: About Me

The views and opinions expressed in this publication are those of the author and do not reflect the official policy or position of any other agency, organisation, employer or company. Assumptions made in the analysis are not reflective of the position of any entity other than the author.

3 Key Changes To CPF Policies From 2022

3 Key Changes To CPF Policies From 2022

January is the month where many people are interested in the CPF. I believe this is because we usually set our life / financial / career goals for 2022 at the start of the year. For those of you who have financial goals, I welcome you to Wealthdojo and hope that this website will be a good resource for you.

3 Key Changes To CPF Policies From 2022
3 Key Changes To CPF Policies From 2022

This article will only highlight 3 2022 CPF Policies updates. If you wish to look at all the other changes that was announced in Nov 2021, you can take a look here.

#1: Basic Retirement Sum (BRS) / Full Retirement Sum (FRS) / Enhanced Retirement Sum (ERS) Updates

The CPF retirement sum is a moving target because of inflation. This is to ensure that CPF payouts will be sufficient during our retirement years. For 2022, the amount in BRS, FRS and ERS are $96,000, $192,000 and $288,000 respectively. If you are turning 55 this year, these numbers will be relevant to you.

#2: Basic Healthcare Sum (BHS) Updates

In 2022, the BHS will be $66,000. This is the estimated savings needed for basic healthcare for old age and is adjusted yearly until the age of 65. This will be fixed for the rest of your lives. If you are turning 65 this year, this number will be relevant to you.

#3: Increase in CPF Top Up Tax Reliefs Updates

You may enjoy tax relief of up to $8,000 if you may a top up for yourself and an additional $8,000 if you make a top up for your loved ones. However, the $8,000 tax relief cap is now shared between Special Account (SA), Retirement Account (RA) and the MediSave Account (MA).

This update has posted the most concerns and I believe this will affect a specific group of individuals which I will explain later.

To understand this, we have to take a step back and look at how top ups were done before 2022 especially MA Top-ups.

Before 2022, topping up MA is a popular tax relief option together with Retirement Sum Top-Up (RSTU). It depends on 2 factors.

  • The difference between the CPF Annual Limit ($37,740) and the CPF contributions made for the calendar year
  • The difference between the BHS and current MA balance

I will be illustrating using an example of Mr Goh (age 25) with a salary of $10,000 monthly with no bonus. As he is young, we can safely assume that his MA amount is way below the BHS. As the the Ordinary Wage ceiling is capped at $6,000 currently, his annual CPF contribution will be the following.

A: Annual CPF Limit: $37,740

B: Annual CPF Contribution: $6000*12*0.37= $26,640.

C: Eligible VC-MA Top-up amount: A – B = $11,100

D: Max RSTU Top-up limit before 2022 = $7,000

E: Total Eligible Tax Relief: C + D = $18,100

As you can see, it is slightly more complicated to calculate tax-reliefs previously.

After 2022, it is very simple. $8,000 tax relief cap is now shared between Special Account (SA), Retirement Account (RA) and the MediSave Account (MA). This means for Mr Goh, his eligible tax relief decreased by $10,100 ($18,100 – $8,000).

Now that we understand the theory behind it, let’s put things into context.

Personally, I think this will not affect most of us. This is because the median income for Singaporeans is $4,534 in 2020 including CPF contributions from employers. It is an income where tax is rather manageable (in my opinion) and you might not consider to contribute to CPF for tax purposes. I do understand that some of you might be attracted to the interest rates from CPF, feel free to contribute at your discretion.

The group that I believe will be affected are the high income young individuals. At that income level, you might be looking for ways to have tax-reliefs such as SRS Top-ups to reduce your taxes.

Final Thoughts

The journey of your financial freedom begins with the first step. Congratulations for reaching the end of the article. I hope to see and hear (write down your thoughts in the comments below) from some of you in 2022.

Take care.

Chengkok is a licensed Financial Services Consultant since 2012. He is an Investment and Critical Illness Specialist. Wealthdojo was created in 2019 to educate and debunk “free financial advice” that was given without context.  

Feel Free To Reach Out To Share Your Thoughts.

Contact: 94316449 (Whatsapp) chengkokoh@gmail.com (Email)
Telegram: Wealthdojo [Continuous Learning Channel]
Reviews: About Me

The views and opinions expressed in this publication are those of the author and do not reflect the official policy or position of any other agency, organisation, employer or company. Assumptions made in the analysis are not reflective of the position of any entity other than the author.

Should You Apply For Rochor River Peak BTO

Should You Apply For Rochor River Peak BTO?

Winning the BTO lucky draw is a bonus for many of young married couples. Pinnacle @ Duxton, Natura Loft @ Bishan, The Peak @ Toa Payoh are among the few that has made headlines for being sold at over a million dollars. These BTO are typically are matured areas.

The government then came up with the PLH model to discourage property inflation especially in the matured area.

In this article, I hope to share whether you should apply for River Peaks @ Rochor in the aspect of financial planning (affordability). I will seek to illustrate how much you should be earning monthly to be able to afford this property comfortably.

Should You Apply For Rochor River Peak BTO
Should You Apply For Rochor River Peak BTO

The Assumptions

Buying price for River Peaks is $635,000 (Average of $582K to $688K).

The couple is eligible for BTO application, no debts, no grant whatsoever. They pays for equal portion of the HDB downpayment and the loan. They starts from zero with no help from parents.

We are using HDB loan that requires the couple to pay at least 10% downpayment ($63,500) of the purchase price. We do not use bank loan as it require 25% downpayment and we assume that it is not an easy sum to pay.

We do not include stamp duties and misc expenses.

Illustration #1: Young Couple that just started working

If your partner and yourself are young with a few years of work experience, HDB loan might be the only option if you do not have capital.

Taking the medium monthly gross $3468 for the age group 25-29, your CPF-OA contribution will be $797.85 monthly. It will take you roughly 40 months / 3.5 years to have $31,750 in your CPF-OA. This means that you can consider applying for this BTO if you have already worked at least 3.5 years. Of course, if you have a good saving habit, you can use cash to pay for the downpayment (see #1A).

However with the monthly gross salary of $3468, the available HDB loan that is $458,400 and this is insufficient as the loan amount required is $571,500. There is shortfall of $113,100.

In this case, you cannot apply for the Rochor BTO unless you have saved an extra $113,100.

Should You Apply For Rochor River Peak BTO HDB Loan Estimator
Should You Apply For Rochor River Peak BTO HDB Loan Estimator

Illustration #1A: Young Couple that just started working and are savers

Let’s push the assumption one step further and assume that the young couple saves 30% of their income for downpayment. This translates to $1040.4 cash and $797.85 CPF-OA per person per month.

Shortfall: $635,000 (property value) – $458,400 (potential loan amount) = $176,600

Monthly Couple Saving Towards Property: [$1040.4 + $797.85]*2= $3,676.5

This translates to 48months or 4 years.

Their estimated monthly mortgage repayment will be $2,080 for a 25 years payment at 2.6%. This works to be cash of $242.15 per person monthly.

This is doable but not easy. However, majority of their equity will be in their house.

Illustration #2: Young Couple that just started working with higher median monthly income

Given that the constant is the amount of loan that can be obtained, I did the reverse calculation and found out that a monthly income of $4,400 will produce the HDB loan of $576,000.

Should You Apply For Rochor River Peak BTO HDB Loan Estimator 2Should You Apply For Rochor River Peak BTO HDB Loan Estimator 2
Should You Apply For Rochor River Peak BTO HDB Loan Estimator 2

In this case, a monthly income of $4400 would mean your CPF-OA would have $1012.09 being contributed monthly. It will take around 32 months or 2.7 years to have $31,750 in your CPF-OA.

Similarly, their estimated monthly mortgage repayment will be $2,080 for a 25 years payment at 2.6%. This works to be cash of $55.82 per person monthly.

Definitely suggest that you probably need a higher income to be comfortable to afford this property.

Final Thoughts

I expect that people applying for this BTO is probably going to be couples that have worked for at least 4 to 6 years (maybe 28 to 32 years old). I expect that their income to be at least $4000 to consider this project.

This assumption means that they have both time to save in their CPF and their saving account to afford for this project.

The downside is that the project have a waiting time of 71 months or close to 6 years (without delay). This means you would not be able to have a home until you are close to the mid 30s.

What do you think about this project? Let me know in the comment below.

Chengkok is a licensed Financial Services Consultant since 2012. He is an Investment and Critical Illness Specialist. Wealthdojo was created in 2019 to educate and debunk “free financial advice” that was given without context.  

Feel Free To Reach Out To Share Your Thoughts.

Contact: 94316449 (Whatsapp) chengkokoh@gmail.com (Email)
Telegram: Wealthdojo [Continuous Learning Channel]
Reviews: About Me

The views and opinions expressed in this publication are those of the author and do not reflect the official policy or position of any other agency, organisation, employer or company. Assumptions made in the analysis are not reflective of the position of any entity other than the author.