Greatest Crash In History? By Rich Dad

October 5, 2021

by Chengkok with No Comment General Economy Investment Accumulation Money Mindset

You probably would have known him. Robert Kiyosaki is famously known for being the author of “Rich Dad, Poor Dad”. My friends and I religiously read his books and I felt that it was a good place to start off with for financial literacy.

The concepts he came up with was simple, easy and gamified. You might have played his Cashflow 101 game in your pursuit of earning knowledge.

This time round, he has gained media attention again for crying the the market will be crashed in October 2021.

A disclaimer as usual. This is by no means a recommendation to buy or sell any securities or financial assets.

His Predictions For October 2021

His thesis: The Evergrande looming default will spread it’s way to the USA market. Debt positions in the US is worsening. Therefore, he feels like it will be good to buy gold, silver and bitcoin but later changed it to keep some in cash.

The above is a possible interpretation from his twitter.

Robert’s Track Record

If you read his books, you will get an idea that Robert is a big fan of debt. He used debt to create huge amount of passive income by purchasing properties.

He also believes that fiat money is worth lesser and lesser due to the extensively QE. As a result, savers are being punished and that hyperinflation will come in future. He is a big believer in Gold because there is value in Gold and have recently talked more about cryptocurrencies.

The very first time (in my memory) when he talked about market crash was in 2015. He believes that a huge market crash will happen in 2016. Of course, it didn’t really happen.

In 2018, he believes that market is going to get a lot worse and we are heading into bear territory. This was the period of time when the FED was raising interest rates.

In 2020, he believes that COVID19 was the final catalyst for the market to move away from traditional assets like stocks and bonds. However, market has already crashed at the time so there wasn’t any prediction for this.

In 2021, he believes that the market will truly crash in Oct 2021.

It is also no secret that he has been talking about investing into Gold, Sliver and Bitcoin.

Biggest Crash In History By Rich Dad Tweet Gold Sliver Bitcoin

What I Think About His Predictions

Next year, I will be celebrating my 10th year in the financial industry. I read extensively, upgraded my knowledge and here’s what I think about his predictions.

While there is nothing wrong about having a prediction, I personally feel that Robert has a deep sense of distrust in the financial system and he is extremely bearish in nature.

I don’t know whether he is right about this prediction and I’m in no position to say so. However, his money script (more on this in the articles in future) caused him to react very negatively to money. His focus is on money being money. He will be right if people start to question the existence of fiat money and stop using fiat money altogether. As a results, gold silver and bitcoin may become storage of value then. It is a long shot but who knows.

Over the last 5 years, Gold has been doing relatively okay. If he have bought it 5 years ago (as he said he did), Gold would roughly 38% up or around 6% CAGR depending on his entry.

Biggest Crash In History By Rich Dad Gold Prices Trend

Final Thoughts

Personally, I’m invested in the long run. In investment, there will be volatility and it is something we have be comfortable with either through education, experience or both. Are you looking to learn about investment?

What do you feel about Robert Kiyosaki’s prediction? Let me know in the comments below.

Chengkok is a licensed Financial Services Consultant since 2012. He is an Investment and Critical Illness Specialist. Wealthdojo was created in 2019 to educate and debunk “free financial advice” that was given without context.

Feel Free To Reach Out To Share Your Thoughts.

Contact: 94316449 (Whatsapp) chengkokoh@gmail.com (Email)
Telegram: Wealthdojo [Continuous Learning Channel]
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The views and opinions expressed in this publication are those of the author and do not reflect the official policy or position of any other agency, organisation, employer or company. Assumptions made in the analysis are not reflective of the position of any entity other than the author.

My SRS Portfolio and Thoughts [Sept 2021]

October 1, 2021

by Chengkok with No Comment Investment Accumulation Money Management Money Mindset SRS

We are done to the last quarter for the year. Have you accomplished your goals? Hope that things have been going well for you. In any case, this article is a simple reporting for my SRS updates.

Disclaimers: This is not and should not be taken as a buy/sell recommendation.

If you would like to see my past quarter thoughts, you can refer to March2021 and June2021.

It is also close to the end of the year, you might be considering SRS investment. Please refer my most read SRS article, 5 Things You Need To Know About SRS to learn more.

My Thoughts And Consideration

The elephant in the room is the exposure into Chinese Technology Stocks (SGX:HST). It has obviously pulled down the entire portfolio as 50% of my portfolio is invested into it. Unfortunately, this SRS portfolio is still small and there is a concentration risk that I acknowledged.

Policymakers in China announced regulatory reforms that has impacted sectors like construction (think Evergrande), private education (think TAL Education Group) and Technology companies that are handling data (think Didi).

In the case of my SRS impact, it was due to the technology sector. As you can see in the Top ETF holding for SGX:HST, it haven’t been doing well year to date.

I remain positive in this exposure as this ETF is invested into quality Chinese companies that can deliver sustainable growth in the next 3 to 5 years. With high internet penetration in China, I believe the performance of the companies will follow suit.

SGX: BTOU is a recovery play in the portfolio. The recovery will depend on COVID19 recovery attempts in US. I’m optimistic that the recovery towards working in office will come in 3 to 5 years time.

Lastly, I’m still considering if I should inject new capital into the SRS portfolio.

Final Thoughts

Disclaimer: this is not and should not be taken as a buy/sell recommendation. Like what Charlie Munger famously said: the big money is not in the buying or selling.. but in the waiting.

We have be having a 3 parts webinar for last quarter of the year. Feel free to reach out to me for more information.

Feel Free To Reach Out To Share Your Thoughts.

Contact: 94316449 (Whatsapp) chengkokoh@gmail.com (Email)
Telegram: Wealthdojo [Continuous Learning Channel]
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Why Dollar Cost Averaging is Not Working On China’s Stocks?

August 26, 2021

by Chengkok with One Comment General Economy Investment Accumulation Money Mindset

The last 2 weeks was a bumpy one for China’s stocks. Technology companies ranging from Alibaba, Tencent, Didi and all the way to the educational sector pretty much spooked investors all over the world. There was massive selling and it seemed to have paused after JD reported good earnings.

Some of these company’s valuation are getting attractive once again as prices corrected in the last 2 weeks. This wasn’t music to the ears for those that are already invested. On the ground, I heard of many investors who took this opportunity to average down (buying at lower prices to lower the average prices). However, some investors seemed to have cracked under pressure and started asking why dollar cost averaging is not working.

Today, this article seeks to explain why dollar cost averaging is not working on China’s stocks… yet.

What is Dollar Cost Averaging (DCA)?

You probably have heard of this term Dollar Cost Averaging (DCA) from a friendly Financial Services Consultant as he was talking about investment. This strategy was made popular to retail investors as a way to invest by reducing the impact on volatility (the ups and downs) in the stock market.

“Time in the market, not timing the market”. This quote always serves as a reminder that investing (not speculation) is about being in the market and not timing the market. (Read More: Why Buy Low And Sell High Is Useless Advice).

The power of dollar cost averaging is making volatility your friend by buying at regular intervals. It is your objective to own as many shares as possible. In the above example, you are invest $1000 for 6 months.

Month #1: Share Price $10. You will be able to buy 100 shares ($1000/10 = 100)

Month #2: Share Price $13. You will be able to buy 77 shares now ($1000/13 ≈ 77). You have 177 (100+77) shares now. The total capital is $2000. The total value of your shares $2301 (177*$13). At this moment, you are profiting $301.

Month #3: Share Price $6. You will be able to buy 167 shares now ($1000/6 ≈ 167). You have 344 (100+77+167) shares now. The total capital is $3000. The total value of your shares $2064 (344*$6). At this moment, you are losing $939. Most people starts to open their warchest now.

Month #4: Share Price $10.98. You will be able to buy 91 shares now ($1000/10.98 ≈ 91). You have 435 (100+77+167+91) shares now. The total capital is $4000. The total value of your shares $4776.30 (435*$10.98). At this moment, you are profiting $776.30 again. You are happy again.

Month #5: Share Price $7. You will be able to buy 143 shares ($1000/7≈143). You have 578 (100+77+167+91+143) shares now. The total capital is $5000. The total value of your shares $4046 (578*7). At this moment, you are losing $954 again. Some people start to freak out and wonder why dollar cost averaging is not working. In the case of China, the chart has been one direction downwards and “the moment” in the time for losses are prolonged.

This is the reason why people feel that dollar cost averaging is not working… yet.

Month #6: Share Price $10. You buy 100 shares. In total, you would have 678 shares. Total capital $6000. The total value of your shares $6780. You are profiting again.

You are making volatility your friend

Dollar cost averaging works when there are ups and downs. Currently, as the Chinese market is down, you will feel that it is not working. When the market recovers, DCA will suddenly “work again”. At this point, you will often hear people start talking about their investment gains.

“Time in the market, not timing the market”.

I had to copy the quote again. Remember that investing (not speculation) is about buying shares of the companies/funds/assets you want through time. Dollar Cost Averaging is just one way that you can consider to invest.

Final Thoughts

You are not alone in this journey. I believe that there are many who have invested in the Chinese market because of good valuation. Of course, there will be non believers of Chinese market because of their tight regulations. At the end of the day, it is about investing with the strategy that you are most comfortable with.

You can buy stock tips. But you can never buy conviction.

Ask yourself if the asset allocation strategy fits your profile. Engage a professional to finetune the strategy. Lastly, do start. With every crisis, comes an opportunity.

Feel Free To Reach Out To Share Your Thoughts.

Contact: 94316449 (Whatsapp) chengkokoh@gmail.com (Email)
Telegram: Wealthdojo [Continuous Learning Channel]
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We are “forced” to be investors whether we like it or not

August 11, 2021

by Chengkok with 2 Comments General Economy Insurance Investment Accumulation Money Mindset

We are forced to be investors whether we like it or not Low Interest Rate — We are forced to be investors whether we like it or not: Low Interest Rate Singapore 25 Years

This one chart explains it all. It was just a “few years” back when my parents told me that it is important to save money in the bank. Saving money in the bank does have many tangible benefits. Firstly, it creates a pool of emergency funds for a peace of mind. Secondly, it gives you a lump of money to prepare for any opportunities. Thirdly, if you don’t do anything, the banks will give you up to 7% interest per annum (Dec 1980). That sounds good to me!

Fast forward to 2021, the bank is giving on average around 0.05% and it seems to be getting lower. The low interest rate environment has changed many areas of finance. Firstly, it has already affected the insurance companies’ participating plans. Secondly and more importantly, it has lead to the erosion of money.

This means that the money you have now, will be worth less in future. For every $10,000 you have in your bank, the real value of your $10,000 will be halved ~$5,454.84 in 30 years if you continue to keep money in bank. (assuming 2% inflation rate)

You can say that we are in a generation that is “forced” to invest or suffer the erosion of money value with time.

What It Means For You?

Whether you are in your 20s who might be working for the next 40 years (damn) or in your 50s who might be retiring for the next 30 years, we are all exposed to the same erosion. As a retiree, it is important to understand that your savings value will go down in quantity and value. As a working adult, it is important to understand that your hard earned money is worth less down the road.

There is only one obvious thing to do. Either you keep pace with inflation (endowment plans/selected bond funds/etc does a decent job for this) or you have beat inflation. If you want to beat inflation, you will most possibly be expose to other asset classes which might have higher volatility and risk. It is crucial to know your risk profile here before you proceed. You might be not suitable for certain asset classes and it is important to talk to professional to assess this.

The Chase For Higher Yield

There are only 2 ways to do this. Either you do it yourself or let others do it for you.

Do it yourself: This is an active role. It involves many things such as knowing what asset classes to buy, what assets in the asset classes to choose from, the pros and cons associated into each assets, the co-relationship between each assets, the duration of investment, the investment thesis and when to exit. This list is not exhaustive.

There is a very strong emphasis here on the level of financial knowledge which might take years to acquire. (All this time, still spending most of your waking hour working on the job). It is a longer process but definitely rewardable.

Do it for you: This is a semi passive role. There is still a personal responsibility to know what you are investing in. Otherwise, you are completely at mercy of the provider. In Do It For You, usually a portfolio is readily available. There will be an explanation on the investment thesis and if you subscribe to the investment thesis, you can consider taking up the Do It For You.

Annual reviews or semi-annual reviews are important here to see how the investment is doing. Generally, it is a passive role after that.

Final Thoughts

Whether you choose to do it yourself or do it for you, the reality is that you have to do something. If you don’t, the retirement journey just might be a little hard.

Till then, take care!

Feel Free To Reach Out To Share Your Thoughts.

Contact: 94316449 (Whatsapp) chengkokoh@gmail.com (Email)
Telegram: Wealthdojo [Continuous Learning Channel]
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3 Things To Know Before You Do CPF Shielding

July 26, 2021

by Chengkok with 6 Comments CPF Accumulation Money Mindset

As the population gets financially educated especially when it comes to the usage of CPF, the idea of CPF-SA shielding is gaining traction. Some says it is a “loophole” and wants this to be closed. Personally, I think it is weird to call it that way. It is like calling investing a loophole because it helps you achieve financial freedom.

If you have read my articles before, you would be aware that context is very important for planning and today’s focus will be the 3 things to know before you do CPF-SA Shielding.

What is CPF SA Shield?

At age of 55, your Retirement Account (RA) will be funded from your Special Account (SA) first and then your Ordinary Account (OA) to make up Full Retirement Sum (FRS).

As SA gives 4% interest as compared to OA 2.5%, there is an interest (pun intended) to keep monies in SA. The idea of CPF-SA shielding is to fund your RA with more of your OA than SA by transferring your SA monies out temporarily.

So what can go wrong?

Context. It is always about context. In my own opinion, not everyone should/can do shielding.

Context #1: Paying For Mortgage Using CPF-OA

Your CPF-OA contribution rate at age 56 is 12%. Using an salary of $6000 (Ordinary Wage Ceiling is $6000 anyway), $720/month goes into your CPF-OA. If your monthly mortgage is > $720/month, you might be using your previous CPF-OA contribution if you don’t want to use cash. (There is a whole literature on why you should use cash but we will leave it for another discussion).

When you do CPF-shielding, your CPF-OA balance drastically reduces and this might mean that you would need to use cash for your mortgage. This might adversely affect your cashflow in future.

Context #2: It Assumes You Know Where to Park your Money Temporary

There are several instruments that you can consider purchasing using your CPF-SA. Different investment carries different risk. It is most important to know your own risk profile or work with someone who can do that for you. Even money market funds carries it’s own unique set of risk. Please take time to understand the benefits and risk of your chosen funds.

To illustrate an example: Mr Suay bought $100,000 worth of Singapore Bond Funds using his CPF-SA to do shielding at the age of 54. Before Mr Suay could sell the Singapore Bond Funds, there was an economic crisis. Typically, volatility of bond funds are not high. However, because of the crisis, Mr Suay may see his Singapore Bond Funds be worth $90,000 now. Mr Suay may experience losses if he wishes to sell it and put it back into his CPF-SA.

And yes, there may be transaction costs involved. Please do the calculations to see if it is worth it.

Sidetrack: It is only when you know what the risk is, then you can learn how to manage those risk. It might be unwise to avoid risk altogether.

Context #3: If you are risk adverse

Every trained financial professional will be able to find out your risk profile by doing a questionnaire. If you happen to be a risk adverse individual, this might not be the best strategy for you.

It is okay to be risk adverse. I think everyone of you will have a different experience with money. There is nothing wrong planning your financial journey as a risk adverse individual. It just means the instruments that you will be using will be different from the rest. There is nothing wrong with that. You are uniquely you.

Final Thoughts

I believe that are merits of doing CPF-SA shielding if done well. The most important consideration is to see if this strategy makes sense to you. The context of the strategy is very important. It may not be applicable to some out there especially if they fall into #1, #2 or #3 as explained above.

If you wish to find out if CPF-SA shield is applicable for you, please do reach out to me.

Till then, take care!

Wealthdojo

His Predictions For October 2021

Robert’s Track Record

What I Think About His Predictions

Final Thoughts

My Thoughts And Consideration

Final Thoughts

What is Dollar Cost Averaging (DCA)?

You are making volatility your friend

Final Thoughts

What It Means For You?

The Chase For Higher Yield

Final Thoughts

What is CPF SA Shield?

Context #1: Paying For Mortgage Using CPF-OA

Context #2: It Assumes You Know Where to Park your Money Temporary

Context #3: If you are risk adverse

Final Thoughts

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